Population Trends
Over the past decade, the population in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been steadily declining, with notable effects on rural areas and broader fire risk dynamics. Since the last census in 2013, the total population dropped to just over 3.5 million, down from 4.37 million in 1991. This decline is largely driven by the continuous emigration of young, educated individuals to European Union countries in search of better opportunities. The departure of the working-age population presents significant challenges for long-term development, particularly in rural communities.
Between 2018 and 2022, the total population in the Federation decreased by around 40,000. During this period, birth rates declined while mortality rates increased, resulting in negative natural population growth in most cantons. Only Sarajevo and West Herzegovina Cantons recorded slight positive growth in 2023.
According to census data, rural areas still officially account for 57% of the population. However, internal migration from villages to urban centers—such as Sarajevo, Tuzla, and Zenica—and international migration have significantly altered the real picture on the ground. The ongoing exodus from rural settlements brings a mix of outcomes. While some abandoned areas may undergo ecological recovery, the lack of land maintenance also increases the risk of vegetation overgrowth and fuel accumulation, increasing the danger of landscape fires.
The loss of rural population also affects local knowledge, response capacity, and community resilience. In mountainous and drought-prone areas of the Federation, these demographic trends contribute to a higher likelihood of large-scale fires. Addressing this issue calls for landscape fire management strategies that are not only technical but also community-based. Supporting local populations through education, landscape management, and preventive measures like controlled burns can significantly reduce fire risks while strengthening the social aspect in vulnerable areas. These actions are essential for preserving both human safety and the long-term health of natural landscapes.