Climate Characteristics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)
The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina features a diverse climate shaped by its topography, altitude, and proximity to the Adriatic Sea. Three main climate zones dominate the region: continental and moderate continental in the north, mountain and mountain valley zones in the central part, and Mediterranean and modified Mediterranean climates in the southern areas.
Average air temperature in FBiH (source of data: FHI, 2024)
In the northern regions, the continental climate brings cold winters and hot summers. Frost may occur during six months of the year, while snow cover typically lasts between 40 and 90 days, depending on the altitude. The hottest month is July, with average temperatures ranging from 20 °C to 22 °C, and the coldest is January, often dropping below 0 °C.
Mountainous areas, located further south, experience greater variability in temperature due to elevation. These regions receive more precipitation, especially on windward slopes, where annual totals can exceed 2000 mm. Summers are cooler, and temperature differences across short distances can be significant. Maritime influence from the Adriatic Sea reduces winter extremes and moderates summer heat, especially in valleys exposed to southern winds. Snowfall plays a key role in annual precipitation totals, contributing up to 50% in some areas.
The southernmost areas, particularly in Herzegovina, have a Mediterranean climate. Winters are milder and summers hotter and drier compared to the rest of the country. Average annual temperatures are higher, ranging from 12.8 °C to 15.2 °C. The difference between the coldest and warmest months is relatively small. Although frost does occur, it is mostly limited to winter months and higher elevations. Annual rainfall in this zone is lower, and prolonged dry periods are more frequent.
Climate Change Scenarios
Recent decades have shown clear signs of climate change across the Federation. Rising temperatures, shifts in seasonal patterns, and prolonged dry periods are becoming more frequent. These changes have direct consequences on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and the occurrence of landscape fires.
Projections based on various IPCC climate scenarios indicate that Bosnia and Herzegovina will face significant warming by the end of the century. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, which assumes high greenhouse gas emissions, average summer temperatures could increase by more than 5 °C in some areas by 2100. Even in more moderate scenarios like RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, temperature increases of 1.5 to 2.5 °C are expected by mid-century.
Change in mean daily temperature (in °C) relative to the reference period 1986-2005. for scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, annually, for three selected future periods: 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100
Precipitation patterns are also expected to change. In the RCP8.5 scenario, summer precipitation may decrease by as much as 30% in southern regions, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires. Winter precipitation is projected to rise slightly across all scenarios, while transitional seasons (spring and autumn) show more varied trends depending on the region. The south is likely to face a spring precipitation deficit, while the north may see slight increases.
Change in average daily precipitation (%) relative to the reference period 1986 ‒ 2005, for scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, on an annual basis, for three selected future periods 2016 ‒ 2035, 2046 ‒ 2065, and 2081 ‒ 2100
These climate changes will have profound implications for natural systems and communities, particularly if no strong mitigation or adaptation efforts are implemented.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Bosnia and Herzegovina joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2000 and ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017. The country submitted its first Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2015, followed by its first full NDC in 2021, outlining climate goals for the period 2020–2030. These include efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen resilience to climate impacts.
The Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations (MOFTER) coordinates climate change policy, including emissions reporting. Between 1990 and 2014, total greenhouse gas emissions fell by 25%, mostly due to post-war economic decline. However, emissions have increased since the early 2000s, especially in the energy sector. In 2014, emissions were recorded at 25,740 Gg CO2eq.
Annual emissions of GHG in Bosnia and Herzegovina
While Bosnia and Herzegovina’s per capita emissions remain among the lowest in Europe, emissions per unit of GDP are nearly four times higher than the EU average. This reflects inefficient energy use and broader economic challenges. As a result, climate policies must address both environmental sustainability and economic development.
The effects of climate change are already visible. Landscape fires are becoming more frequent and severe, especially during hot, dry summers. Forest ecosystems are under growing pressure from drought, pests, and shifting species ranges. These impacts underscore the need for improved biodiversity protection, adaptive land management, and stronger climate policies to protect both people and nature.